Managing crisis and the unexpected: Navigating a confidence gap in leadership

In today’s fast-moving business environment, leaders are constantly confronted with uncertainty. Market shifts, regulatory changes, talent departures, and operational disruptions can all arrive without warning. Yet research shows a mismatch. While most leaders recognise rising organisational risk, few feel fully equipped to manage it. Confidence is under pressure, just when it’s most critical.

Confidence isn’t simply self-assurance. It’s the belief that you can act decisively, interpret ambiguity accurately, and maintain stability for your teams. When this foundation wavers, even highly capable leaders can feel unmoored and uncertain about what move will succeed and what might amplify risk.

When the unexpected strikes

Crises rarely unfold in predictable ways. Imagine a CEO arriving to find that a key project lead has stepped down unexpectedly, citing frustration that critical resources were repeatedly redirected without consultation. On the surface, the leader might respond with determination or frustration, but privately, confidence falters. The shock is operational, but it also exposes a deeper disconnect between the leader’s perception of the organisation and the reality experienced by their people.

Similarly, consider a hypothetical product launch delayed by a last-minute withdrawal from a key supplier. The leader must quickly assess risk, reassure stakeholders, and recalibrate plans (all while navigating personal doubts about whether the warning signs were visible earlier). This sort of scenarios reveals that leadership is as much about managing uncertainty as it is about executing a strategy.

Crisis also exposes hidden vulnerabilities in organisational culture. Staff often hesitate to raise concerns if they fear judgment or reprisal. When these blind spots go unaddressed, leaders may be stunned by issues that could have been mitigated much earlier.

Blind spots and the hidden threat to confidence

Blind spots are the unexamined beliefs and assumptions that shape how leaders interpret events. They can distort perception, limit possibilities, and amplify crises. Bias (both conscious and unconscious) is often at the root.

Consider how confirmation bias works. Leaders often interpret events through a lens shaped by prior beliefs. First, an initial assessment forms a view of “how things are.” Next, they notice and remember evidence that supports that view, while overlooking information that contradicts it. Finally, interpretations are reinforced until the belief feels unquestionably true. This cycle is what we call the three steps to sealing the truth, a concept that’s useful for explaining how unexamined assumptions and blind spots can take root. Over time, these reinforced beliefs can distort decision-making, obscure alternative explanations, and create ceilings for both the team and the leader, limiting what is seen as possible or achievable.

Context can also further shape these blind spots. The way leaders interpret a problem often depends on the assumptions they bring to it – often informed by past experience that may or may no longer be relevant.

Awareness is the first step in breaking these cycles. Leaders who actively question assumptions, solicit diverse perspectives, and reflect on their own thinking can uncover hidden risks, surface untapped opportunities, and expand what they and their teams believe is possible.

The spiral of doubt

A drop in confidence can quickly become self-reinforcing. Leaders may hesitate to make decisions, avoid difficult conversations, or defer responsibility, hoping that uncertainty resolves itself. The result is a cycle where small issues grow into significant problems.

Imagine a CFO noticing early signs of declining revenue in a key division. Unsure of their analysis, they delay raising concerns. By the time the executive team addresses the issue, the problem has escalated, requiring more drastic interventions. The initial hesitation (rooted in a lack of confidence) has magnified the consequences.

This pattern demonstrates a key principle: low confidence affects the leader and the organisation. Teams mirror hesitation, which in turn leads to risk-aversion and diminished creativity. Communication may also become cautious, which will result in waning engagement.

The role of awareness and psychological safety 

Recovery begins with recognising where confidence is faltering and why. Leaders must examine their own blind spots while creating conditions for their teams to speak openly. Psychological safety (an environment in which employees can voice concerns, share ideas, or admit mistakes without fear) is crucial.

For instance, a Head of Operations may discover that staff have been overworking to cover procedural gaps rather than escalating issues. Without psychological safety, these warning signs remain hidden until they become crises. Leaders who foster openness detect these signals early, intervene constructively, and rebuild trust.

Curiosity complements safety. Leaders who ask questions such as, “What am I missing?” or “Where could my assumptions be wrong?” model reflective inquiry, encourage honest input, and uncover hidden risks before they escalate.

Managing the ripple effect

When leaders lose confidence, even temporarily, the effects extend far beyond their immediate circle. Teams sense it quickly. Not necessarily through what’s said, but through tone, energy, and behaviour. Anxiety spreads easily in organisations and silence or speculation fills the gaps where clarity should be.

In these moments, leadership means managing perception as much as performance. It’s about naming uncertainty, communicating with honesty, and creating space for others to express what they’re experiencing. The goal isn’t to eliminate doubt but to model calm and direction.

From crisis to capability

When confidence takes a hit, it’s rarely because someone has suddenly become less capable. More often, it’s because something has shaken the sense of control or certainty that confidence rests on.

These moments are of course uncomfortable, but they can also be clarifying. They show what really matters to you as a leader, and also create space to notice what you might have missed before (assumptions, habits, or blind spots that shaped how you led).

Rebuilding confidence after a shock isn’t about trying to return to how things were. It’s about finding a steadier foundation. When leaders stop trying to appear certain and start engaging honestly with uncertainty, they often discover a different kind of strength.

Every difficult moment offers that choice. You can let doubt shrink what feels possible, or use it to see more clearly. The leaders who come through crisis stronger are usually the ones who stay curious and keep looking forward, even when they don’t have all the answers.

If you want to explore how to build leadership confidence that lasts, get in touch to start the conversation.