The start of a new year often brings a familiar leadership ritual: plans are refined, targets are set, and goals are cascaded through the organisation.
But in today’s environment, certainty is increasingly an illusion. Markets shift unexpectedly and technology is evolving faster than strategies can keep up. What worked last year is no longer a reliable guide for what comes next. In this context, leaders face a deeper question than “What should our plan be?”
The more powerful question is: “What conditions do we need to create so that our people can navigate whatever emerges?”
The hidden cost of rigid plans
Of course, planning, direction and commitment are all essential. But rigid attachment to plans as a source of certainty can trap leaders and teams.
When success is defined primarily as sticking to the plan and hitting predefined goals, behaviour narrows. We often see teams focusing on protecting progress and justifying decisions instead of learning from reality. In turn, this means that ambition shrinks to what feels safe. Goals become incremental because people don’t feel safe to declare something bolder. Over time, plans become prisons of our own making.
In volatile environments, leadership is less about controlling the route and more about staying committed to a meaningful destination.
From certainty to possibility
Human beings are wired to seek patterns and explanations. Faced with uncertainty, we quickly move from what happened to why it happened, collapsing facts into interpretations. Leaders are especially vulnerable to this, as they are often surrounded by commentary rather than raw data.
The shift required is subtle, but it can be transformative: moving from the language of certainty and action to the language of possibility.
Instead of asking: “How do we get back on plan?” or “Why didn’t this work?”
Leaders who unlock progress ask: “What’s possible now?” “What are we learning?” and “What might work next?”
It’s about redirecting accountability to focus on learning and movement, not just adherence. But possibility alone isn’t enough. For people to act on it, they must feel safe to step into the unknown.
The role of psychological safety
Breakthrough goals require people to think, speak, and act differently. That only happens in environments where individuals feel safe to take interpersonal risks.
Amy Edmondson famously defined psychological safety as “the belief that one will not be punished or humiliated for speaking up with ideas, questions, concerns, or mistakes.” Her research shows that when this belief is absent, people don’t stop caring, but they do stop contributing fully.
Fear shows up in predictable ways: Fear of looking ignorant prevents questions. Fear of looking intrusive prevents challenge. Fear of looking incompetent hides mistakes. Fear of being seen as negative silences critique.
The result is often teams aiming for what’s defensible, not what’s transformative.
Research consistently reinforces this. Studies cited by McKinsey show psychological safety as a core driver of team effectiveness. And in Trust Factor, neuroscientist Paul J Zak highlights that psychologically safe environments are linked to significantly higher engagement, productivity, and retention.
In short, without psychological safety, ambition is constrained.
Leaders as the decisive element
In uncertain conditions, leadership is not about having the best answers. It’s about shaping the environment in which answers can emerge. That means recognising yourself as the decisive element.
Leaders set the emotional and conversational tone. What you reward, tolerate, and role-model tells people far more than any strategy document ever could. Saying “we want bold thinking” while reacting defensively to challenge or failure shuts possibility down instantly.
Leaders who enable breakthroughs:
Don't mistake this for being permissive. It's about being intentional.
Exploration over execution alone
Certainty is comforting, but it’s exploration that leads to innovation. When leaders accept that the future cannot be fully predicted, experimentation becomes a responsibility. Small, fast experiments allow teams to learn their way forward instead of defending outdated assumptions.
A useful parallel can be found in modern software development, where traditional linear delivery has given way to iterative, exploratory approaches often described as ‘Agile’. Progress happens through short cycles of testing, learning, and adaptation rather than rigid execution against an early specification.
The same principle applies to leadership. When teams are clear on the destination but free to explore the route, ownership and energy build, and learning accelerates.
Planning, but not plans
The leaders who thrive in uncertainty are those who loosen their grip on plans. But this doesn’t mean they don’t plan. Instead, they hold a strong commitment to a possible future while remaining flexible about how it will be achieved. They invest as much attention in culture, trust, and conversation as they do in targets and timelines.
Most importantly, they create environments where people feel safe enough to think big, speak honestly, and explore boldly.
If you’re ready to move beyond rigid plans and create the conditions for real breakthrough, get in touch to explore what’s possible.